Long-term rates can always go lower, but can’t they also go higher? Are all the sophisticated investors on the buy side of long bonds and all the dummies on the sell side? And if all the smart people are buying long bonds, does that mean it’s the right thing to do? Last year Berkshire Hathaway lost $1 billion on its bet on the dollar. Can we really be comfortable with the thought that the probability of rates going to 2% is greater than them going back to 15% plus, like they were under Reagan? Threats from abroad have a financial and economic effect that the Fed and other institutions can’t necessarily control and we, as a country, are doing everything that increases the threats facing us from abroad. Doesn’t being long in bonds tend to increase these risks beyond what is appropriate for most muni investors who are in them for the safety and security of their principal?
S.F., Connecticut